Daily

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Important dates (purple dashed lines):

  • May 14: First day after Stay-at-Home order reversed by state Supreme Court
  • May 25: Memorial Day (typical celebrations and/or vacations)
  • July 4: Independence Day (typical celebrations and/or vacations)

(green dashed lines):

  • March 25: Stay-at-Home order put in place
  • July 20: Large national stores putting mask mandates in place
  • Aug 1: WI mask mandate in effect

Eau Claire

Note: due to lag time between exposure and final positive test, effects of changes are typically observed about two weeks after event.

Wisconsin

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with rare cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 8-12 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available.

Eau Claire

Wisconsin

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 15days
July 30 2020 462 13427 3 60 111
July 31 2020 474 13509 3 67 109
August 01 2020 485 13728 3 76 114
August 02 2020 503 13731 3 82 115
August 03 2020 507 13833 3 84 110
August 04 2020 517 14025 3 84 115
August 05 2020 531 14107 4 98 124
August 06 2020 541 14189 4 105 132
August 07 2020 563 14218 4 122 142
August 08 2020 574 14732 4 126 151

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 15days
July 30 2020 52108 867602 919 9090 13381
July 31 2020 52940 882149 934 8805 13313
August 01 2020 54002 895945 947 9155 13495
August 02 2020 54924 904666 948 9025 13439
August 03 2020 55328 911435 949 8411 13013
August 04 2020 56056 928845 961 8186 13038
August 05 2020 56940 944984 970 8113 12805
August 06 2020 57779 961851 978 8362 12932
August 07 2020 58768 974948 990 8589 12869
August 08 2020 59933 986945 996 8884 13016

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 20 days, are approximately 9.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.44 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-08-29 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1211"